论文部分内容阅读
以淮河流域172个县为研究单元,基于1990、1995、2000、2005和2010年分县粮食、化肥及2010年水环境数据,采用ESDA模型、重力模型、回归分析和GIS空间技术方法,分别对流域粮食生产与化肥消费的空间集聚程度及重心进行测定,在此基础上分析了流域粮食生产与化肥消费的动态时空变化规律、耦合关系及其对流域水环境影响。结果表明:①粮食生产与化肥消费的“高-高”和“低-低”集聚区存在显著空间正相关,空间聚集特征明显,“高-高”类型区主要集中分布在流域下游的苏北平原和皖北平原,“低-低”类型区主要集中分布在流域上游的伏牛山、桐柏山和沂蒙等山区;②重心分析表明,20 a来粮食生产和化肥消费的重心逐步由流域东北向西南方向移动,分别移动了29.51 km和34.97 km,两者重心之间距离呈现近似“W”的“先减后增再减再增”徘徊特点;③流域粮食生产与化肥消费的“高-高”和“低-低”集聚区在流域空间位置上高度耦合,呈现增减协同的时空演进格局,且两者重心时空演变轨迹具有同向性,空间耦合特征显著;④回归分析表明化肥消费是流域水环境污染的主要贡献因子和污染来源,也表明流域粮食生产过程中环境成本较大,呈外部不经济效应。
Based on the data of grain, fertilizer and water environment in sub-prefectures in 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010 in 172 counties in the Huaihe River Basin, ESDA model, gravity model, regression analysis and GIS spatial technique were used respectively Based on this, the spatial and temporal changes of grain production and fertilizer consumption in the basin were analyzed, and their coupling relationship and their impact on the water environment of the river basin were analyzed. The results showed that: ① There was a significant spatial positive correlation between food production and fertilizer concentration in the areas of “high-high” and “low-low”, with obvious spatial aggregation characteristics and the distribution of “high-high” In the Northern Jiangsu Plain and the Northern Anhui Plain in the lower reaches of the basin, the “low-low” type areas are mainly distributed in the mountainous areas such as Funiu Mountain, Tongbai Mountain and Yimeng in the upper reaches of the river basin; ②The analysis of gravity center shows that in the past 20 years, grain production and fertilizer The center of gravity of consumption gradually moves from northeast to southwest of the basin and moves by 29.51 km and 34.97 km, respectively. The distance between the two centers of gravity is similar to that of “W ” and “hops first, then decreases again and then increases” (3) The “high-high” and “low-low” agglomeration areas of grain production and fertilizer consumption in the basin are highly coupled in the spatial position of the basin, showing a temporal-spatial evolution pattern of synergistic increase and decrease. The results of regression analysis show that fertilizer consumption is the main contributor to the pollution of water environment in the basin and the source of pollution. It also shows that the environmental costs in the process of food production in the basin are relatively large, showing an external non-economic effect.