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康德拉季耶夫在上世纪20年代即发表了《经济生活中的长波》论著,认为“资本主义经济发展中存在一个平均长约50年的长期波动”。迄今,对于“长周期是否存在”、“长周期日期的界定”、“长周期产生的原因”等问题,存在诸多争议。本文拟以美国200年的经济发展事实为历史参照,特别是以此次恶化并弥散的金融海啸为现实蓝本,试析美国经济发展长周期之惑。
Kandlatifyev published a treatise on “Long Waves in Economic Life” in the 1920s, believing that “there is an average long-term fluctuation of about 50 years in the capitalist economic development.” So far, there have been many controversies over such issues as the existence of long cycles, the definition of long periods, the causes of long cycles, and so on. This article intends to take the fact that the United States has 200 years of economic development as its historical reference. In particular, it takes this deteriorating and dispersed financial tsunami as a blueprint and analyzes the confusion of the long cycle of economic development in the United States.