本文基于“投资——短期贷款”敏感性以及构造的“短贷长投”变量,初步验证了“短贷长投”这种激进型投融资策略在我国企业经营实践中的客观存在,并且发现“短贷长投”对于公司业绩具有严重负面效应,表明“短贷长投”主要表现为企业应对金融抑制的替代性机制,而非结合自身特征的自主决策结果;货币政策适度水平的提高不仅能够直接对“短贷长投”产生抑制效应,而且可以通过降低“短贷长投”对公司业绩的不利影响发挥间接作用。进一步分析发现,“短贷长投”可能通过加剧经营风险、引发非效率投资、提高财务困境成本等途径对公司业绩产生负面效应;考虑产权性质差异,非国有企业“短贷长投”行为相对更为严重,并且货币政策适度水平的提高对非国有企业“短贷长投”的影响更为显著。本文结论有助于解释我国实体经济运行风险加剧的原因,以及货币政策调整对实体经济运行风险之影响,亦为我国地方企业家“跑路”现象的涌现提供了部分理论解释。 Based on the sensitivity of “investment-short-term loan” and the constructed “short-loan long-term investment” variables, this paper validates the radical investment strategy of “short-term long-term investment” And found that “short-term long-term investment” has a serious negative effect on the performance of the company, indicating that “short-term investment” is mainly manifested as an alternative mechanism for enterprises to cope with financial repression rather than autonomy with their own characteristics The result of the decision-making is that the moderation of monetary policy can not only directly exert a restraining effect on the “short-term investment” but also play an indirect role by reducing the adverse impact of the “short-term investment” on corporate performance. Further analysis found that “short-term investment” may have a negative effect on the performance of the company by aggravating operational risk, causing inefficient investment and raising financial distress costs. Considering the differences in property rights, non-state-owned enterprises “Behavior is relatively more serious, and the moderate level of monetary policy to improve the non-state-owned enterprises ” short-term investment "impact is more significant. The conclusion of this paper is helpful to explain the reasons for the increasing risk of the real economy in our country and the impact of the monetary policy adjustment on the real economy’s operation risk. It also provides some theoretical explanations for the emergence of local entrepreneurs ’run-off ’ phenomenon in our country.