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At present， the major task of the G20 nations is to alleviate the downward pressure on the global economy and try to achieve stable growth. In the past seven years， the governments of these nations have made concerted efforts in coping with the global financial crisis by implementing proactive fiscal policies and easy monetary policies. Although these policies have produced their intended effects， they’ve also caused some negative spillovers.
Last year， the world economy only grew by 3 percent. Amidst a weak global economy， the G20 nations face a common challenge—how to sustain growth while looking for new growth engines. Actually， G20 nation leaders have already reached a consensus in the past G20 meetings—trying to achieve strong， sustainable and balanced growth. Even so， those three attributes are actually profound in the changes they entail.
First of all， the world’s economic growth is still weak and unsustainable. And there is still a big income gap between people of different countries. In the meantime， unemployment around the world is also on the rise. Global commodity prices continue to decline and crude oil price may remain $30 per barrel for some time to come， leading to deflation pressure.
Some resource-dependent countries in particular， such as oil producers like Russia， Brazil and Saudi Arabia， are facing great difficulties. The United States’ interest rate hike and the appreciation of the U.S. dollar affected those economies negatively， causing strong fluctuations in the financial markets of some emerging economies in the Asia Pacific region. Fluctuations in the financial market， foreign exchange market and the stock market are affecting both investors’confidence and consumers’ spending， which is harmful to the global economy.
Therefore， leaders of the world’s 20 major economies should jointly analyze this common issue through the G20 meetings. Their priority should lie in pushing forward the achievement of stable growth. A new point that should be noted is the essential role of structural reform in boosting economic growth. China is promoting supplyside structural reform. Other economies， developed and emerging， should all include structural reform into their reform efforts.
When making changes to monetary policies， fiscal policies and macro policies， large countries should give consideration not only to the impact that these policies may bring to themselves but also to others， in order to minimize negative spillovers of the policies. For instance， the United States’ interest rate hike has intensified flows of global capital and fluctuations in the global financial market， thereby hurting emerging economies. In the past， when the United States launched its quantitative easing policy， large-scale capital flight resulted in asset bubbles in emerging economies. This reflected a fundamental problem： In a diversified， multi-polar global economy， the U.S. dollar is still the dominating international reserve currency and assumes too many responsibilities， which may bring large systematic risks. The United States is therefore in an awkward position. On one hand， it needs to raise its interest rates to boost its own economic growth. On the other hand， its move produces negative effects for other countries. Therefore， large nations need to strengthen their coordination on macro policies. The G20 can regularly release assessment reports on the potential fiscal and financial risks of big countries—similar to what the International Monetary Fund has done—to issue early warnings. Meanwhile， authorities in these countries should strengthen communication with the market about their policies in order to guide expectations. Otherwise， the financial market is likely to be mired in chaos. Thus， coordination between big countries is crucial.
Strengthening policy coordination is also needed to achieve the goal of 2 percent additional output by 2018 put forward in the communiqué of the latest G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Shanghai. The world’s GDP is about $70 trillion， so 2 percent equates to$1.4 trillion. The world economy is expected to grow by 3.4 percent and 3.6 percent in 2016 and 2017. The joint collaboration of countries around the world is necessary in order to achieve the addition of those two percentage points.
As for individual countries， the key to reaching that goal is whether their policies are adequate or not. For instance， China is promoting structural reform to increase productivity and boost innovation. Innovation tops the five development concepts of China’s 13th Five-Year Plan （2016-20）. In addition， from the perspective of global sustainable development， China insists on strengthening inter-connectivity and increasing investment on infrastructure as it is helpful to international capital flow， the free movement of production factors， trade facilitation， and investment liberalization as well as economic globalization and integration. China’s increasing trade， investment and financial cooperation in this field can tap great potential for economic growth.
Last year， the world economy only grew by 3 percent. Amidst a weak global economy， the G20 nations face a common challenge—how to sustain growth while looking for new growth engines. Actually， G20 nation leaders have already reached a consensus in the past G20 meetings—trying to achieve strong， sustainable and balanced growth. Even so， those three attributes are actually profound in the changes they entail.
First of all， the world’s economic growth is still weak and unsustainable. And there is still a big income gap between people of different countries. In the meantime， unemployment around the world is also on the rise. Global commodity prices continue to decline and crude oil price may remain $30 per barrel for some time to come， leading to deflation pressure.
Some resource-dependent countries in particular， such as oil producers like Russia， Brazil and Saudi Arabia， are facing great difficulties. The United States’ interest rate hike and the appreciation of the U.S. dollar affected those economies negatively， causing strong fluctuations in the financial markets of some emerging economies in the Asia Pacific region. Fluctuations in the financial market， foreign exchange market and the stock market are affecting both investors’confidence and consumers’ spending， which is harmful to the global economy.
Therefore， leaders of the world’s 20 major economies should jointly analyze this common issue through the G20 meetings. Their priority should lie in pushing forward the achievement of stable growth. A new point that should be noted is the essential role of structural reform in boosting economic growth. China is promoting supplyside structural reform. Other economies， developed and emerging， should all include structural reform into their reform efforts.
When making changes to monetary policies， fiscal policies and macro policies， large countries should give consideration not only to the impact that these policies may bring to themselves but also to others， in order to minimize negative spillovers of the policies. For instance， the United States’ interest rate hike has intensified flows of global capital and fluctuations in the global financial market， thereby hurting emerging economies. In the past， when the United States launched its quantitative easing policy， large-scale capital flight resulted in asset bubbles in emerging economies. This reflected a fundamental problem： In a diversified， multi-polar global economy， the U.S. dollar is still the dominating international reserve currency and assumes too many responsibilities， which may bring large systematic risks. The United States is therefore in an awkward position. On one hand， it needs to raise its interest rates to boost its own economic growth. On the other hand， its move produces negative effects for other countries. Therefore， large nations need to strengthen their coordination on macro policies. The G20 can regularly release assessment reports on the potential fiscal and financial risks of big countries—similar to what the International Monetary Fund has done—to issue early warnings. Meanwhile， authorities in these countries should strengthen communication with the market about their policies in order to guide expectations. Otherwise， the financial market is likely to be mired in chaos. Thus， coordination between big countries is crucial.
Strengthening policy coordination is also needed to achieve the goal of 2 percent additional output by 2018 put forward in the communiqué of the latest G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Shanghai. The world’s GDP is about $70 trillion， so 2 percent equates to$1.4 trillion. The world economy is expected to grow by 3.4 percent and 3.6 percent in 2016 and 2017. The joint collaboration of countries around the world is necessary in order to achieve the addition of those two percentage points.
As for individual countries， the key to reaching that goal is whether their policies are adequate or not. For instance， China is promoting structural reform to increase productivity and boost innovation. Innovation tops the five development concepts of China’s 13th Five-Year Plan （2016-20）. In addition， from the perspective of global sustainable development， China insists on strengthening inter-connectivity and increasing investment on infrastructure as it is helpful to international capital flow， the free movement of production factors， trade facilitation， and investment liberalization as well as economic globalization and integration. China’s increasing trade， investment and financial cooperation in this field can tap great potential for economic growth.