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FDI对经济增长是否总是起到正面推进作用?进一步,该作用的发挥在多大程度上依赖于当地的金融发展水平?这是我国当前修订对外开放政策框架前所必须要考虑的问题。本文使用Hansen非动态面板门槛回归模型、采用我国1992-2012年省际面板数据对FDI对经济增长作用的金融发展门槛进行了实证分析。研究发现,与一般认为的FDI总能促进地区经济增长的观点不同,FDI对经济增长的作用具有明显的金融发展门槛效应,而且是双重门槛:当金融发展水平低于低门槛时,FDI对地区经济会有抑制作用;在高低门槛之间,FDI对经济增长会有比较显著的促进作用;高于高门槛时,FDI对地区经济的促进作用将逐步回落;金融发展双重门槛的存在使得FDI对经济增长的作用整体呈现倒U型。论文最后据此提出应根据地区金融发展程度实行差异性政策等相关的政策建议。
Does FDI always play a positive role in promoting economic growth? To what extent does this role depend on the level of local financial development? This is an issue that China must consider before revising the policy framework for its opening up. This paper uses the Hansen non-dynamic panel threshold regression model, the use of China’s provincial panel data from 1992 to 2012 on FDI’s economic growth effect of the threshold of financial development conducted an empirical analysis. The study finds that, in contrast with the generally accepted view that FDI can always promote regional economic growth, the role of FDI in economic growth has obvious threshold of financial development and is a double threshold: when the level of financial development is lower than the low threshold, The economy will have an inhibitory effect; between the high and low threshold, FDI will have a significant role in promoting economic growth; above the high threshold, the promotion effect of FDI on the regional economy will gradually decline; the dual threshold of financial development makes FDI The role of economic growth as a whole showed inverted U-shaped. According to the conclusion of the dissertation, the author puts forward some suggestions on how to implement different policies according to the level of regional financial development.