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针对(不完全)年调节水电站优化调度中年最优发电量随径流参数的变化规律不明晰的研究现状,本文从提出时空两方面描述径流年内分配均匀度的改进基尼系数入手,揭示了年径流量与改进基尼系数相互独立的数学规律。采取以年径流量和改进基尼系数为随机变量的径流生成方法,再结合确定性优化调度数学模型开展水电站中长期优化调度研究,这种“随机-确定”相结合的优化方法有效地避免了水电站中长期随机优化调度中径流描述“维数灾”问题。基于单因子回归分析提取了年最优发电量基点,并以此为基础进行年最优发电量与年径流量和改进基尼系数之间的联合变化规律研究。实例应用表明,三峡水电站年最优发电量与改进基尼系数和年平均流量之间具有较好的准线性乘积关系,其年最优发电量计算方法具有很高的精度,为水电站年最优发电量的计算提供了一种简便、快速和高精度的方法。
In view of the current research status of (incompletely) annual optimal power generation in hydropower stations with varying annual variation of runoff parameters, this paper starts with the improved Gini coefficient describing the distributional evenness of annual runoff in terms of time and space, The Mathematical Law of Flow and Improvement of Gini Coefficient. Taking the method of runoff generation with annual runoff and improved Gini coefficient as random variables, combined with the mathematical model of deterministic optimal dispatching, this paper studies the long-term optimal dispatching of hydropower stations. This “stochastic-deterministic” optimization method can effectively avoid Runoff Description “Dimension Disaster ” Problem in Medium and Long Stochastic Optimal Dispatching of Hydropower Stations. Based on the single-factor regression analysis, the annual optimal power generation base point was extracted, and based on this, the law of joint change between annual optimal power generation and annual runoff and improved Gini coefficient was studied. The case study shows that the annual optimum power generation of the Three Gorges Project has a good quasi-linear product relationship with the improved Gini coefficient and the annual average flow rate, and the annual optimal power generation calculation method has high precision, The amount of calculation provides a simple, fast and high-precision method.