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随着全球及我国生物能源产业的迅速发展,生物能源的副产品玉米干酒糟(DDGS)的生产和利用也快速增长,并成为饲料的重要来源之一。2010年我国DDGS进口量达316万吨,甚至超过了玉米的进口量。由于进口量剧增,我国相关政府部门已经对此展开了反倾销立案调查。本文在对我国DDGS利用现状、价格和进口贸易深入分析的基础上,利用“中国农业可持续发展决策支持系统”分析了未来我国畜牧业发展对DDGS需求和进口贸易的影响。研究表明,作为玉米和豆粕的重要替代品,随着我国畜牧业的快速发展,对DDGS的需求和进口量在未来几年也将呈现持续增长趋势。
With the rapid development of the global and China’s bio-energy industry, the production and utilization of bio-energy by-product corn distiller’s dried grain (DDGS) has also grown rapidly and has become one of the important sources of feed. In 2010, China’s DDGS imports reached 3.16 million tons, even exceeding the import volume of corn. Due to the sharp increase in imports, relevant government departments in China have started anti-dumping investigations. Based on the in-depth analysis of China’s DDGS utilization status, prices, and import trade, this paper analyzes the impact of China’s animal husbandry development on DDGS demand and import trade in the future using the “China’s sustainable development support system for agricultural development.” Research shows that, as an important substitute for corn and soybean meal, with the rapid development of China’s animal husbandry, the demand for DDGS and its import volume will also continue to increase in the coming years.