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在出口难以快速复苏的背景下,消费升级无疑将成为今年经济增长亮点,而另一方面,政府投资与私人部门投资是否能够并驾齐驱也值得关注。去年在常规货币政策与积极财政政策刺激下,居民消费出现了超预期增长,1～11月社会消费品零售总额累计名义增速达15.3%。扣除价格因素,累计实际增速达16.9%,已经达到历史最高增速,单月实际增速最高接近18%(见图1)。
In the context of the difficulty of rapid export recovery, consumption escalation will undoubtedly become the highlight of this year’s economic growth. On the other hand, it is noteworthy that government investment and private sector investment can keep pace. Last year, stimulated by the regular monetary policy and the proactive fiscal policy, the resident consumption showed unexpected growth. From January to November, the cumulative nominal growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 15.3%. Excluding price factors, the cumulative actual growth rate of 16.9% has reached the highest growth rate in history, the highest monthly growth rate of nearly 18% (see Figure 1).