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一国兵员征募制度的选择,既是效率演进的需要,也是利益博弈的结果。经济成本和军事效益是各国实施志愿兵役制改革的潜在动力,而相关利益群体之间重复博弈形成的政治经济态势,又可能对志愿兵役制改革产生现实阻力。志愿兵役制的实施,既需要强劲的动力,还需要正视和消除诸多阻碍改革的社会政治因素。随着军事技术的发展和国际安全环境的改善,中国军队规模将不断缩减,军事人力占适龄青年的比重也会越来越小,因而具有较大的实施志愿兵役制改革的动力,但从社会的政治经济态势看,现阶段并不是启动志愿兵役制改革的最佳时机。
The choice of a country’s troop recruitment system is not only the need for efficiency evolution, but also the result of a game of interests. Economic costs and military benefits are the potential motivation for countries to implement voluntary military service reform. The political and economic situation created by the repeated game between relevant interest groups may also have a realistic resistance to the reform of the voluntary service system. The implementation of the voluntary military service system not only requires strong impetus but also needs to address and eliminate many socio-political factors that hinder reform. With the development of military technology and the improvement of the international security environment, the scale of the Chinese army will continue to shrink, and the proportion of military personnel in the age group will also get smaller and smaller. As a result, there will be greater impetus for the reform of the voluntary service system. However, Political and economic situation, this stage is not the best time to start the reform of the voluntary service system.