论文部分内容阅读
本文运用中国上市公司的数据研究了中国企业债务上升所带来的风险。结果显示,虽然平均杠杆水平不高,但高杠杆企业存在肥尾现象,致使这些企业的债务在总体企业债务中占显著份额,尤其是房地产、建筑业及国有企业。房地产及建筑企业通常借贷成本较低,因此尽管其杠杆水平较高,仍能承受利率轻微上升所带来的冲击,然而房地产及建筑业的显著下行会使整个企业部门遭受打击。我们的敏感性分析结果显示,如果房地产行业和建筑业利润下降20%,处于财务危机的企业债务占所有上市公司总债务的比重将会上升至1/4。
This article uses data from Chinese listed companies to study the risks posed by rising corporate debt in China. The results show that although the average leverage is not high, there are fat tail enterprises in high-leveraged enterprises, resulting in a significant share of the debts of these enterprises in the overall corporate debt, especially in the real estate, construction and state-owned enterprises. Real estate and construction companies, which generally have lower borrowing costs, are still able to withstand the impact of a modest rise in interest rates despite their high leverage levels, but the significant downturn in real estate and construction will hit the entire corporate sector. Our sensitivity analysis shows that if the real estate industry and the construction industry fell by 20%, corporate debt in the financial crisis will account for 1/4 of the total debt of all listed companies.