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本文基于中国1996～2007年31个省(自治区、直辖市)的面板数据进行实证研究,考察我国东部、中部、西部不同区域人力资本、城市化与经济增长的关系,并进一步利用门槛面板回归模型,以城市化作为门槛变量,考察不同区间内,其对人力资本发挥促进经济增长作用的差异影响。分析结果表明:人力资本对经济增长的贡献度因城市化的强弱而呈现出显著的区间效应,人力资本对经济增长的贡献度随着城市化水平的提高呈现出近似“U”型的曲线关系。城市化必须达到一定的门槛水平,才能有效推进人力资本发挥促进经济增长的作用。
Based on panel data of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) from 1996 to 2007 in China, this paper examines the relationship between human capital, urbanization and economic growth in different regions of eastern, central and western regions of China and makes further use of the threshold panel regression model. Urbanization is taken as a threshold variable to examine the different effects of human capital on promoting economic growth in different regions. The results show that the contribution of human capital to economic growth shows a significant interval effect due to the strength of urbanization, and the contribution of human capital to economic growth shows a similar “U” type with the increase of urbanization level The curve of the relationship. Urbanization must reach a certain threshold level in order to effectively promote the role of human capital in promoting economic growth.