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2008年爆发的金融和经济危机是对全球经济失衡发展的强制纠正。危机以来,全球经济再平衡取得明显进展,这主要源于以下途径:汇率调节机制的恢复、国内投资储蓄失衡的调整、政府赤字规模的收缩以及增长模式的转变等。但从长期和结构性因素看,贸易顺差国和逆差国短期内均难以作出根本性政策调整,因而国家间经济关系失衡将成为未来世界经济的常态。由此,在危机后的相当长时间里,全球经济失衡引发的贸易保护主义,以及汇率和资本流动的无序波动带来的风险仍将持续存在和发酵,并将对世界和中国的经济平衡及可持续增长造成长期冲击。
The financial and economic crisis that erupted in 2008 was a mandatory correction to the development of an imbalance in the global economy. Since the crisis, remarkable progress has been made in rebalancing the global economy mainly due to the following measures: the resumption of the exchange rate adjustment mechanism, the adjustment of the imbalance in the domestic investment and savings, the contraction of the government deficit, and the change of the growth pattern. However, from a long-term and structural point of view, it is difficult for the trade surplus countries and the deficit countries to make fundamental policy adjustments in the short term. As a result, the imbalance of economic relations among countries will become the norm in the future world economy. Thus, for a long time after the crisis, the risks posed by global economic imbalances such as protectionism and the disorderly fluctuations in exchange rates and capital flows will continue to persist and be fermented, and the economic balance between the world and China will be maintained And long-term impact of sustainable growth.