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目的了解恶性肿瘤的地区流行特征和趋势,为预防诊疗提供依据。方法对2003～2011年上海市某医院收治的所有首次确诊为恶性肿瘤的病例进行疾病种类、年龄、性别及年份分布情况的流行病学描述,并用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测近5年该院收治恶性肿瘤患者人数。结果消化器官恶性肿瘤、呼吸和胸腔内器官恶性肿瘤占主要地位,分别占恶性肿瘤患者总数的45.61%和24.42%,且均为男、女性恶性肿瘤患者的顺位前2位(分别占男性恶性肿瘤患者总数的50.51%和31.35%,女性的38.39%和14.21%)。乳房恶性肿瘤和女性生殖器官恶性肿瘤,分别占女性患者总数的13.54%和12.44%,顺位女性恶性肿瘤第3、4位。男性患者主要集中在50岁以上中年人群(占男性患者总数的87.87%),女性患者主要集中在40岁以上(占女性患者总数的91.48%),75岁以上高龄老人在男、女性患者中所占比例均较大(分别为21.20%、17.97%)。GM(1,1)模型预测该院今后收治的恶性肿瘤患者人数仍将延续2003-2011年的上升趋势,到2016年可能达到1404人。结论该地区消化器官和呼吸器官恶性肿瘤患者所占比例较大,为诊疗的主要人群;乳房恶性肿瘤和女性生殖器官恶性肿瘤为威胁女性身体健康的主要恶性肿瘤,应引起广大妇女和医疗卫生机构的重视,定期进行妇科检查;中老年人是恶性肿瘤防治的重点人群。预测模型显示肿瘤患者将继续增加,因此在实施“三早措施”的同时,需要提高医院对恶性肿瘤的诊疗能力。
Objective To understand the regional epidemic characteristics and trends of malignant tumors and provide evidence for prevention and treatment. Methods The epidemiological description of the type, age, sex and year distribution of all the first diagnosed cases of malignant tumors admitted to a Shanghai hospital from 2003 to 2011 were analyzed. The gray system GM (1,1) The hospital admitted to the number of patients with cancer. Results Digestive system malignant tumors, respiratory and intrathoracic organ malignancies accounted for 45.61% and 24.42% of the total number of malignant tumors, respectively, and were the top two of the male and female malignant tumors (male malignant 50.51% and 31.35% of the total number of cancer patients, and 38.39% and 14.21% of females). Breast malignant tumors and female genital malignancies accounted for 13.54% and 12.44% of the total number of female patients, respectively, ranking female malignant tumors 3,4 positions. Male patients mainly concentrated in the middle-aged population over the age of 50 (87.87% of the total number of male patients), female patients mainly concentrated in the 40-year-old (91.48% of the total number of female patients), 75-year-old elderly in male and female patients Accounting for a large proportion (21.20% and 17.97% respectively). The GM (1,1) model predicts that the number of patients with malignant tumors admitted to the hospital will continue the upward trend from 2003 to 2011 and may reach 1404 by 2016. Conclusion Malignant tumors of digestive organs and respiratory organs occupy a large proportion in this area, which is the main population for diagnosis and treatment. Breast malignant tumors and female genital malignancies are the main malignant tumors that threaten the health of women. Women and medical institutions The importance of regular gynecological examination; the elderly are the focus of prevention and treatment of malignant tumors. The prediction model shows that the number of cancer patients will continue to increase. Therefore, while implementing the “three early measures”, it is necessary to improve the hospital’s ability to diagnose and treat malignant tumors.