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本文认为,投资波动是经济波动的直接原因,投资扩张从总量和结构这两个方面引起经济波动。改革之前,总量失衡的原因在于国家对边际产值的追求,结构失衡则是由于国家追求重化工业的发展战略所造成的,因此,过去的经济波动都表现为政府行为的变化。改革之后,总需求的波动不再是政府的单一行为,消费扩张成为总需求扩张的一个重要因素,结构失衡是市场导向的结果。1982—1989年的经济波动,主要原因是消费膨胀,而不是投资波动。
This paper argues that the volatility of investment is the direct cause of economic fluctuations, and the expansion of investment causes economic fluctuations in both aggregate and structural terms. Before the reform, the total imbalance was due to the state’s pursuit of marginal product value. The structural imbalance was caused by the state’s pursuit of the development strategy of the heavy chemical industry. As a result, the past economic fluctuations showed changes in government behavior. After the reform, the fluctuation of aggregate demand is no longer a single behavior of the government. Consumption expansion has become an important factor in the expansion of aggregate demand. The structural imbalance is the result of market orientation. The main reason for the economic fluctuations in 1982-1989 was inflation rather than investment volatility.