论文部分内容阅读
采用水稻生育生理生态综合模型ORYZA1，模拟分析了未来15种可能气候变化对浙江省水稻产量的影响结果表明，CO2浓度的增加将使水稻增产，温度增加将导致水稻减产虽然CO2增加和相应增温对各季水稻产量在各地区的影响表现不同，但在不考虑温室效应将同时导致旱涝和病虫害变化条件下．GFDL、GISS和UKMO模型预测的气候变化将使浙江省全年水稻产量分别平均增产9．53％、8．92％和0．04％．
The ORYZA1 model was used to simulate and analyze the impact of 15 potential climate changes on rice production in Zhejiang Province in the future. The results show that the increase of CO2 concentration will increase the yield of rice and the increase of temperature will lead to the decrease of rice yield. Although the increase of CO2 and corresponding warming The impact of paddy production in each season on the performance of different regions is different, but irrespective of the greenhouse effect will lead to both drought and flood and pest and disease changes. The climate change predicted by GFDL, GISS and UKMO models will increase the annual rice yield of Zhejiang Province by 9.53%, 8.92% and 0.04% respectively on average.