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本文通过对上海市区7,872对新婚夫妇的前瞻性调查,分析新婚夫妇在结婚登记和开始正常性生活时的生育计划及其变化的决定因素。结果显示,半数以上的夫妇于结婚登记一个月以后才开始正常性生活,在结婚登记时,有43.4%夫妇表示婚后不打算避孕,56.6%表示将使用避孕以推迟受孕时间。到正常性生活开始时,有25.5%的夫妇改变了原来的生育计划,15.2%提前了受孕时间,10.3%推迟了受孕时间。多因素Logistic回归分析结果表明,结婚登记与开始正常性生活间隔时间较长、夫妇初婚年龄较轻及妻子的避孕知识较贫乏、则夫妇容易改变生育计划。妻子避孕知识较丰富、夫妇初婚年龄较大、丈夫有兄弟、妻子是脑力劳动者、婚前接受过正规性教育及没有婚前性行为的夫妇,容易推迟其生育计划。
Based on a prospective survey of 7,872 newlyweds in urban Shanghai, this article analyzes the determinants of the fertility plan and its changes for newly married couples at the time of marriage registration and beginning of normal life. The results showed that more than half of couples married only one month after the start of normal sex life at marriage registration, 43.4% of couples said they did not intend to contraception after marriage, 56.6% said they would use contraception to delay the time of conception. By the beginning of normal sexual life, 25.5% of couples changed their original fertility plan, 15.2% of them got pregnant earlier, and 10.3% delayed their pregnancy. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that marriage registration and beginning of normal life longer interval, the younger the age of first marriage, and wife’s contraceptive knowledge is poor, the couple easily change the birth plan. Wife contraceptive knowledge is more abundant, the couple first marriage older, husband and brother, wife is mental worker, married before formal education and without premarital couples, easy to postpone their fertility program.