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考虑分布式发电的优先自用特征与风电站的经济特性,在贡献毛益随机变动前提下,运用实物期权理论构建了分布式风电站投资机会的期权定价模型。求解出贡献毛益临界值、最优投资规模、以及延迟投资的期权价值和期望等待时间,通过算例分析验证了主要结论并给出了参数对均衡状态影响程度的变动规律。研究发现:对投资有时限的分布式风电站而言,贡献毛益临界值、最优投资规模、以及期望等待时间均与贡献毛益的期望增长率和变动率正相关,而延迟投资的期权价值与此二者相关性存在差异,且影响的显著性也不同;在一定条件和贡献毛益波动范围内,推迟投资的期权价值与相应的期望等待时间随风电自用占比或初始贡献毛益的增大而分别增大和减小,但风电自用占比对最优投资规模,以及初始贡献毛益对贡献毛益临界值与最优投资规模并无影响;决策者的最优投资决策需同时考虑贡献毛益临界值及其最优投资规模。
Considering the priority self-consumption characteristics of DG and the economic characteristics of wind farm, under the premise of a random change of gross profit, an option pricing model of investment opportunities for distributed wind farm is constructed by using real option theory. The critical value of contribution gross profit, the optimal investment scale, the option value of delayed investment and the expected waiting time are solved. The main conclusions are verified by an example analysis and the variation of the influence degree of parameters on the equilibrium state is given. The study finds that for the distributed wind farm with time-limited investment, the contribution margin, the optimal investment scale, and the expected waiting time are all positively correlated with the expected growth rate and the rate of change of contribution gross profit, while the deferred investment option The relationship between value and the two is different, and the significance of the impact is also different; within certain range of conditions and contribution to the volatility of the gross profit, the value of the option to postpone the investment and the corresponding expected waiting time with the share of self-use of wind power or the initial contribution of gross However, the proportion of self-occupied wind power has no effect on the optimal investment scale and the contribution of initial contribution to the critical value of contribution gross profit and the optimal investment scale. The optimal investment decision-making needs At the same time consider the contribution of gross margin and the optimal investment size.