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本文选用我国31个省市1999~2007年的面板数据进行了税收结构、人力资本与经济增长关联度的实证分析。结果表明,从直接影响来看,企业所得税、个人所得税及消费税对经济增长有负面影响,而增值税、营业税则与经济增长正相关;而间接影响方面,消费税、增值税、营业税、企业所得税会通过人力资本使经济增长率上升,而个人所得税会通过人力资本使经济增长率下降。因此,在今后的税制改革中,可进一步提高个人所得税费用扣除额,尽快向分类与综合相结合征收模式过渡,发挥其公平收入分配的作用;继续保持增值税与营业税等间接税为主的单主体税制结构,并进一步完善消费型增值税制度,适当降低营业税税率,以促进第三产业的发展。
This paper selects the panel data of 31 provinces and cities of our country from 1999 to 2007 to carry on the empirical analysis of the tax revenue structure, the correlation between human capital and economic growth. The results show that, from the direct impact, the corporate income tax, personal income tax and consumption tax have a negative impact on economic growth, while the value-added tax, business tax and economic growth are positively correlated; indirect impact, the consumption tax, value added tax, business tax, corporate income tax Through economic growth, human capital has risen, while personal income tax has reduced economic growth through human capital. Therefore, in the future tax reform, we can further increase the deduction of personal income tax expenses and transition to a mode of combination of comprehensive classification and comprehensive collection as soon as possible so as to exert its fair share of income distribution. We will continue to maintain a single entity based mainly on indirect taxes such as value-added tax and business tax Tax structure, and further improve the consumption-based value-added tax system, and appropriately reduce the business tax rate to promote the development of the tertiary industry.