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根据突出机理的“球壳失稳”理论，将初始释放瓦斯膨胀能和软煤厚度作为理想石门揭煤条件下的突出预测指标．在４０多次突出模拟试验中，出现了３种类型的现象：非突出、弱突出及强烈突出．测定了每次试验中煤样的初始释放瓦斯膨胀能和软分层厚度等数据，并用线性判别分析法进行处理，得到了非突出、弱突出及突出３种动力现象的判别方程及临界值．分析结果表明，煤样的初始释放瓦斯膨胀能在判别石门揭煤动力现象中作用最大，单独采用这一指标预测突出危险性，也具有相当高的准确性．
According to the prominent mechanism of “spherical shell instability” theory, the initial release of gas expansion energy and soft coal thickness as the ideal stone under the conditions of uncovering a prominent predictor. In more than 40 prominent simulation tests, three types of phenomena have emerged: non-prominent, weakly prominent and strongly prominent. The data of gas release energy and thickness of soft layer in the initial release of coal sample in each experiment were measured and processed by linear discriminant analysis. The discriminant equations and critical values of non-salient, weak salient and salient three kinds of dynamic phenomena were obtained. The analysis results show that the initial release of coal sample gas expansion can play the most important role in distinguishing the coal seam kinetic phenomenon, and the index alone can predict the outstanding risk and has a high accuracy.