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利用鄱阳湖湖口、星子、都昌、吴城、棠荫和康山水位站多年逐日水位资料,采用统计分析法、趋势分析法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验法和Morlet小波分析法分析了鄱阳湖水位年内变化特征、年际变化趋势、极值变化、突变特征及其周期性。结果表明:鄱阳湖水位在年内具有高动态变化的特征,月最高水位一般出现在7月份,平均水位为17.75 m,最低水位一般出现在1月份,平均水位为10.8 m,年内变化幅度达6.95 m;鄱阳湖水位在多年尺度上呈现微弱的下降趋势,但是自2003年以来下降幅度较大,并多次出现极低枯水位;按年代际来对比,则2000年以后的平均水位是所有年代中最低的;鄱阳湖日、月、年最高水位出现在1954年和1998年,年最低水位出现在2011年,月和日最低水位出现时间不一致,但都主要集中在2003年之后;鄱阳湖水位有2个比较明显的突变点,即1965年附近和2006年附近,其中都昌站突变前后最大水位差达到了1.3 m;鄱阳湖水位受多种因素的影响,并没有表现出明显的周期特性,只在28时间尺度上表现出微弱的周期特性。
Based on the daily water level data of Poyang Lake, Xingzi, Duchang, Wucheng, Tongyin and Kangshan water stations, statistical analysis, trend analysis, Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to analyze the Poyang Annual variation characteristics of lake water level, interannual variation trend, extreme value change, mutation characteristics and its periodicity. The results show that the water level of Poyang Lake has the characteristics of high dynamic variation during the year. The monthly maximum water level usually occurs in July with the average water level of 17.75 m. The lowest water level usually occurs in January with an average water level of 10.8 m and a year-on-year change of 6.95 m ; Poyang Lake water level showed a slight downward trend in the multi-year scale, but the decline ranged from 2003 to now, and the extremely low dry water level occurred many times. According to the interdecadal comparison, the average water level after 2000 is the highest in all the years Lowest; the highest daily, monthly and annual water level of Poyang Lake occurred in 1954 and 1998, and the lowest annual water level occurred in 2011, while the lowest monthly water level on the month and the same day appeared inconsistencies but mainly concentrated after 2003; the Poyang Lake water level was Two obvious abrupt change points, that is near 1965 and near 2006, the maximum water level difference before and after Duchang station reached 1.3 m; Poyang Lake water level affected by many factors and did not show obvious periodic characteristics, Only on 28 time scales showed weak periodicity.