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分析了房地产泡沫的成因,基于投机的房地产泡沫理论,建立房地产价格的回归模型,并在此基础上,建立了房地产投机泡沫测度的计量模型.然后,运用该模型对我国房地产市场进行投机泡沫测度研究,结果表明我国房地产市场在整体上并不存在泡沫,但已处在泡沫的边缘.最后,对社会上普遍存在的泡沫论观点进行了分析,指出我国房地产投资与宏观经济指标出现了脱节,存在过度投资,并不是泡沫,从而也支持了投机测度模型的结论.
This paper analyzes the causes of the real estate bubble, based on speculative real estate bubble theory, establishes the regression model of the real estate price, and on this basis establishes the measurement model of the real estate speculation bubble measure.Then it uses the model to measure the real estate market speculation in our country Research shows that the real estate market in our country does not exist in the overall bubble, but is already at the fringe of the bubble.Finally, the author analyzes the prevailing bubble theory in the society and points out that there is a disconnect between the real estate investment and macroeconomic indicators in our country, The existence of overinvestment is not a bubble, and thus supports the conclusion of the speculative measure model.