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随着今年第一季度经济增速跌至7.5%的年度目标以下,中国崩溃论再度发酵,金融市场也重燃对大规模刺激的预期。对此,笔者并不认同。经济增速放缓符合发展规律,我们更应关注中国经济出现的一些积极变化:增长水分减少,质量提高,结构优化,中国经济的内生动力正在增强。在劳动力供应下降和经济结构转型的大背景下,对短期刺激政策不应有过高的期待,短期政策预计仅会预调微调,以保证经济在合理的区间范围内运行。从增长质量上看,经济增长的水分被挤出,效益明显提高。首先,消费的
As the economic growth in the first quarter of this year fell below the annual target of 7.5%, the collapse of China re-fermented and financial markets resumed its expectation of massive stimulus. In this regard, I do not agree. The slowdown in economic growth is in line with the law of development. We should also pay more attention to some positive changes in the Chinese economy: growth and water reduction, quality improvement and structural optimization, and the endogenous motivation of China’s economy is growing. Against the backdrop of a drop in labor supply and a restructuring of the economy, there should not be too high an expectation of short-term stimulus policies. Short-term policies are only expected to be fine-tuned in advance to ensure that the economy operates within a reasonable range. From the point of view of growth quality, the water of economic growth is squeezed out and the benefits are obviously raised. First, consume