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利用乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川东支和西支1990/1991—2009/2010年的物质平衡资料,对比分析了东、西支的物质平衡变化。结果表明:东支的物质亏损量大于西支,平衡线高度(ELA)总体上低于西支,积累区比率(AAR)下降幅度大于西支;东支平均物质平衡-582 mm·a-1,累积物质平衡为-11638 mm,西支平均物质平衡-485 mm·a-1,累积物质平衡-9692 mm;东、西支平衡线高度均呈现升高趋势,分别升高了143、131 m;东、西支AAR下降了29.8%、19.6%。分析表明,物质平衡与ELA呈显著负相关,与AAR呈显著正相关,东、西支物质平衡减小100 mm,ELA分别升高19、23 m,AAR减小4.5%。物质平衡对气候变化的敏感性分析表明,当降水量不变时,夏季气温升高1℃,东支物质平衡减小487 mm,西支减小398 mm;当夏季气温不变时,降水量增加100 mm,东支物质平衡增大164mm,西支增大185 mm。在未来全球持续升温背景下,东、西支物质平衡将会继续减小。
Based on the material balance data of East Branch and West Branch of Glacier No. 1 Glacier in Urumqi from 1990 to 1991 to 2009/2010, the material balance of east and west branches was comparatively analyzed. The results showed that the eastern branch of the East Branch of the material losses than the West Branch, the balance line height (ELA) is generally lower than the West Branch, accumulation area ratio (AAR) decline greater than the West Branch; East Branch average material balance -582 mm · a-1 , The cumulative material balance is -11638 mm, the average western material balance is -485 mm · a-1, and the cumulative material balance is -9692 mm. The height of the balance line between the east and west branches shows an upward trend, increasing by 143,131 m ; East and West Branch AAR dropped by 29.8%, 19.6%. The results showed that there was a significant negative correlation between the substance balance and ELA, and a significant positive correlation with AAR. The balance of substances in the east and west branches decreased 100 mm, ELA increased by 19 and 23 m, and AAR decreased by 4.5%. Sensitivity analysis of the material balance to climate change shows that when the precipitation is constant, the temperature in summer increases by 1 ℃, the balance of the east branch decreases 487 mm, and the west branch decreases by 398 mm. When the summer temperature is constant, the precipitation With an increase of 100 mm, the east mass balance increased by 164 mm and the west branch increased by 185 mm. In the future, the global warming continues, the balance of materials in the east and west will continue to decrease.