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水稻生育时期内水分亏缺,是形成水稻气候干旱的首要条件.利用四川省1960-2010年159个气象站逐日降水量、日平均气温资料和水稻生育时期资料,以降水距平百分率、相对湿润度指数作为干旱指标,分析四川省水稻分蘖期、拔节孕穗期和抽穗扬花期不同气候干旱等级发生概率,构建水稻气候干旱灾害风险模型,评估四川省水稻分蘖期、拔节孕穗期和抽穗扬花期以及整个生育时期的气候干旱风险.结果表明:四川省水稻拔节孕穗期和抽穗扬花期气候干旱风险较高,降水距平百分率和相对湿润度指数的风险区划结果并不完全相同,但分布趋势相近.水稻整个生育时期,四川盆地和东北部部分地区干旱风险较高,川南地区干旱风险相对较小.
Water deficit during rice growth period is the primary condition for the formation of arid climate in rice.Using the daily precipitation, daily average air temperature and daily growth of 159 meteorological stations in Sichuan Province from 1960 to 2010, the relative percentage of precipitation anomaly The drought index was used as drought index to analyze the occurrence probability of rice drought disasters at tillering stage, jointing booting stage and heading and flowering stage in Sichuan Province. The drought risk model of rice climate was constructed to evaluate the tillering stage, booting booting stage and flowering stage of rice in Sichuan Province The results showed that there was a high risk of climate drought at heading stage and heading-flowering stage in Sichuan Province, and the results of risk zoning of precipitation anomaly percentage and relative humidity index were not all the same, but the distribution trend was similar. During the whole growth period of rice, there is a higher risk of drought in the Sichuan Basin and parts of northeastern China, and the drought risk in southern Sichuan is relatively small.