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有关俄罗斯与东北亚能源关系演变的研究,不仅涉及俄罗斯国内政治层面的国家—企业关系演进,而且还包括由全球能源体系变革和地缘政治冲击引发的俄罗斯在不同地区能源市场维度上的角色互动。我们在此试图构建俄罗斯与东北亚能源关系演变的“双层博弈”框架,即在强调俄罗斯国内政治行为对地区能源关系影响的同时,考察东北亚能源市场上各方利益博弈对俄罗斯能源政策实施的作用。其中,全球能源体系变革和地缘政治危机对传统油气出口国的外部冲击,将被纳入对东北亚能源关系演变的动态分析。考虑到世界能源市场正在经历从卖方市场向买方市场的转变,俄罗斯对东北亚能源合作的需求程度将越来越大于后者对前者的进口依赖。俄罗斯从资源民族主义转向实施更加开放包容的能源政策,将实质性地推进其与东北亚能源关系的提升与深化。
The research on the evolution of energy relations between Russia and Northeast Asia not only involves the evolution of state-enterprise relations at the domestic political level in Russia, but also includes the role interaction of Russia in energy market dimensions in different regions triggered by global energy system reform and geopolitical shocks. We are trying to build a “double-layer game” framework for the evolution of energy relations between Russia and Northeast Asia. That is, while emphasizing the influence of Russian domestic political behavior on regional energy relations, we examine the various interests of Northeast Asian energy market game on Russian energy The role of policy implementation. Among them, the external impact of the global energy system reform and geopolitical crisis on the traditional oil and gas exporters will be included in the dynamic analysis of the evolution of energy relations in Northeast Asia. Considering that the world energy market is undergoing a shift from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market, Russia’s demand for energy cooperation in Northeast Asia will increasingly be greater than its dependence on the latter’s imports. Russia’s shift from resource-nationalism to a more open and inclusive energy policy will substantially push forward the deepening and deepening of its energy relations with Northeast Asia.