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为验证货币国际化与股票市场发展间是否存在相互促进的正相关关系,运用面板数据模型对1999-2012年间美国、日本、欧盟与英国股票市场发展与各自货币国际化程度进行研究。研究发现,货币国际化与股票市场发展二者之间不存在显著的互动关系。同时,货币国际化对于股票市场的影响是双向的,影响方向不能确定。一方面股票市场发展对货币国际化虽有正向影响,但影响甚微;另一方面,货币国际化作为解释变量,股票市场发展作为被解释变量,回归系数未能通过显著性检验。依托实证分析结果,对货币国际化与股票市场发展之间存在互动关系的现有研究结论提出质疑。
In order to verify whether there is a positive correlation between the currency internationalization and the stock market development, panel data model is used to study the development of stock markets in the United States, Japan, EU and UK and the internationalization of their currencies during 1999-2012. The study found that there is no significant interaction between currency internationalization and stock market development. At the same time, the influence of currency internationalization on the stock market is two-way, and the influence direction can not be determined. On the one hand, although the development of the stock market has a positive impact on the internationalization of the currency, it has little effect; on the other hand, the internationalization of the currency as the explanatory variable and the development of the stock market as the explanatory variables fail to pass the significance test. Relying on the results of the empirical analysis, the paper inquires into the existing research conclusions about the interaction between currency internationalization and stock market development.