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目的构建鼠疫风险评估方法,为鼠疫防控策略的制定和鼠疫防控资源的部署提供理论依据。方法整理1994~2013年人间鼠疫发病资料、动物鼠疫疫情资料,利用风险矩阵法和Borda序值法对中国鼠疫疫源地区进行风险排序。结果 1994~2013年人间鼠疫年均发病34.5人,平均每年有52个县发生动物鼠疫疫情,Borda序值法排序靠前的90个县中,喜马拉雅旱獭疫源地73个县,长爪沙鼠疫源地5个县,大沙鼠疫源地7个县,蒙古旱獭和达乌尔黄鼠疫源地各2个县,齐氏姬鼠大绒鼠疫源地1个县。结论建立基于风险矩阵法和Borda序值法的鼠疫风险评估方法,该方法简便、快捷、实用,值得推广应用。
Objective To construct a plague risk assessment method, which provides a theoretical basis for the development of plague prevention and control strategies and the deployment of plague prevention and control resources. Methods The epidemiological data of human plague in 1994 ~ 2013 and the plague epidemic data of animal were collected. The risk matrix method and Borda ordinal value method were used to rank the risk of plague origin in China. Results The annual incidence of human plague in 1994 ~ 2013 was 34.5, with an average of 52 animal plague occurrences in 52 counties each year. Of the 90 counties ranked by the Borda ordor ranking method, 73 counties of Himalayan marmot, 5 counties in the source area, 7 large plague foci, 2 Mongolian Marmota and Daluer yellow plague foci in 2 counties, and 1 Amnodendrogia foetida in a county. Conclusion The risk assessment method based on risk matrix method and Borda ordinal value method is established. The method is simple, quick and practical and it is worth popularizing and applying.