基于SAM均衡建模方法,建立面向居民福利研究的中国动态多区域社会公平CGE政策模拟模型,对比分析自然情景、生产控制型减排政策情景和最优增长情景下的区域和居民福利变化。研究发现减排政策存在明显的增长率区域分异,这将破坏在自然增长下存在的区域收敛力,导致中国区域之间的差距再度被拉大。面向减排的投资控制政策短期对于居民收入的不利影响较小,但长期影响不容忽视,需要进行居民收入保护。由于城镇退休居民和农村劳动居民已经具备针对性的养老保障政策和“三农政策”保护收入增长,其总体福利受减排政策的冲击较小,因此缺乏相应政策支持的城镇劳动居民应该是收入保护的优先考虑群体。模拟显示减排政策更有利于代际和城乡人均收入差距的缩小,但考虑到减排带来的绝对收入水平下降,不能过于乐观估计这种差距缩小效应。 Based on the SAM equilibrium modeling method, this paper establishes a dynamic multi-regional social equity CGE policy simulation model for residents’ welfare research in China, and compares the changes of natural conditions, production controllable emission reduction policy scenarios and the welfare of residents in the optimal growth scenario. The study found that there are obvious regional differences in the growth rate of emission reduction policies, which will undermine the regional convergence under the natural growth, leading to the re-enlargement of the gap between China’s regions. The short-term investment control policies facing emission reduction have less adverse impact on household income, but the long-term impact can not be ignored and residents’ income protection needs to be implemented. As urban retired residents and rural laborers already have the targeted pension insurance policy and the “three rural policies” to protect their income growth, their overall welfare is less affected by the emission reduction policies. Therefore, urban laborers who lack corresponding policy support should Income protection is a priority group. The simulation shows that the emission reduction policy is more conducive to reducing the income gap between generations and urban and rural per capita income. However, taking into account the reduction of absolute income brought by emission reduction, we can not overestimate the effect of this gap reduction.