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股票市场发挥着经济增长的“晴雨表”的功能,对于股票市场与中国经济增长关系的研究一直是经济研究中的热点问题。本文针对影响股票价格波动的宏观经济因素建立了联立方程模型,对宏观经济因素影响我国股票市场价格的变动作了定量分析。并且进行了情景模拟,但是模拟的结果与股票价格的实际波动有很大的差距。最后得出结论,经济总量因素、货币因素、财政因素都能对股票价格产生较大的影响。
The stock market plays the function of “barometer” of economic growth. The research on the relationship between the stock market and China’s economic growth has always been a hot issue in economic research. In this paper, a simultaneous equation model is established for macroeconomic factors that affect the volatility of stock prices. Quantitative analysis is made on the changes in the price of Chinese stock market caused by macroeconomic factors. And the scenario simulation was conducted, but the simulation result is far from the actual fluctuation of the stock price. Finally, it is concluded that the total economic factors, monetary factors and financial factors can have a greater impact on stock prices.