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目的应用求和自回归滑动平均(ARIMA)模型预测2013年1—12月深圳市光明新区各月手足口病发病趋势,为防控工作提供依据。方法应用SPSS 18.0软件对深圳市光明新区2009年1月—2012年12月手足口病发病率进行ARIMA模型拟合,预测2013年各月的发病率。结果模型ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0)12能较好地拟合既往时间段的发病序列,深圳市光明新区2013年的预测发病率为746.65/10万,全年有2个发病高峰,第1个高峰出现在4、5月,第2个高峰出现在9月。结论 ARIMA模型能较好模拟深圳市光明新区手足口病的发病趋势,该区2013年手足病疫情严峻,应继续做好防控工作。
Objective To predict the trend of hand-foot-mouth disease in each month in Guangming New District of Shenzhen from January to December in 2013 using the ARIMA model to provide evidence for prevention and control. Methods The incidence of HFMD in Shenzhen Guangming New District from January 2009 to December 2012 was fitted with ARIMA model using SPSS 18.0 software to predict the incidence of each month in 2013. Results The model ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (0, 1, 0) 12 can well fit the sequence of the previous time period. The predicted incidence in Shenzhen Guangming New District in 2013 was 746.65 / Two peak incidence, the first peak appeared in April and May, the second peak appeared in September. Conclusion The ARIMA model can simulate the trend of hand-foot-mouth disease in Guangming New District in Shenzhen. The epidemic situation of hand-foot-and-mouth disease in this area was severe in 2013 and the prevention and control work should be continued.