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为研究非化石能源在中国未来电力行业发展中的作用,建立了中国电力政策评价模型(electric power policy assessment model for China,EPPAC)。在对未来电力需求和非化石能源发电装机进行情景设计的基础上,对非化石能源在中国电力行业发展中的作用及其2020年发展目标核算的敏感性进行了分析,指出未来实现非化石能源发展目标所面临的困难及不确定性。结果表明:在政策情景下,2020年非化石能源在电力行业的应用按火电供电煤耗核算将达到7.1亿tce,在一次能源消费的占比将达到14.8%;而在水电与核电发展减速的情景下,为达到相同非化石能源占比,需将2020年风力发电装机容量增至310GW,或将太阳能发电增至220GW,这将分别是其“十二五”规划目标的1.7和8.7倍。
To study the role of non-fossil fuels in the future development of power industry in China, an electric power policy assessment model for China (EPPAC) was established. On the basis of scenario design of future electricity demand and non-fossil energy power generation installed capacity, the paper analyzes the role of non-fossil energy in the development of China’s power industry and its sensitivity to the development goal of 2020. It points out that in the future, non-fossil energy The difficulties and uncertainties facing the development goals. The results show that under the policy scenario, the non-fossil energy application in the power industry will reach 710 million tce by coal-fired power supply in 2020 and 14.8% of the primary energy consumption. However, in the scenario where hydropower and nuclear power development slow down , In order to reach the same non-fossil energy share, it is necessary to increase the installed capacity of wind power to 310 GW by 2020 or increase the solar power to 220 GW, which will be respectively 1.7 and 8.7 times their “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” targets .