2016年,国际油价走出低开高走行情,布伦特原油收于每桶56.75美元,和2015年底相比每桶上涨19.47美元,涨幅高达52%,是2009年后涨幅最大的一年。2016年世界石油市场波澜壮阔,跌宕起伏,发生了多次标志性事件,也经受了英国脱欧、唐纳德·特朗普当选美国总统等政治经济黑天鹅事件的冲击。预计2017年发生黑天鹅事件的概率较小。在2017年,对短期国际油价的准确预测将难以找到大事 In 2016, international oil prices out of the low and high prices, Brent crude oil closed at 56.75 US dollars a barrel, and by the end of 2015 compared with 19.47 US dollars per barrel, up 52%, is the largest increase since 2009. In 2016, the world oil market surged, ups and downs, and many landmark events took place. It also suffered the impact of the black swan political and economic events such as the Brexit and Donald Trump’s election as the president of the United States. The probability of occurrence of black swan events in 2017 is expected to be small. In 2017, accurate forecasts of short-term international oil prices will make it difficult to find a major event