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本文利用ARDL模型研究实际有效汇率变化对我国农产品进出口贸易的影响。研究表明:一、马歇尔-勒纳条件只对于部分国家成立;二、无论从范围还是程度上讲,实际有效汇率变化对我国初级农产品进出口的影响大于加工农产品进出口的影响。三、在分别使用国家间的加总数据时,都出现了“总和偏倚”现象。
This article uses the ARDL model to study the impact of the real effective exchange rate on the import and export of agricultural products in China. The research shows that: 1) The Marshall-Lerner condition is only valid for some countries; 2) the impact of the real effective exchange rate on the import and export of primary agricultural products in China is greater than that of processed agricultural products, both in scope and in extent. Third, there was a “total bias” phenomenon when using aggregate data between countries respectively.