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本文基于2007年以来江苏省跨境资金顺差的历史数据,进行季节调整和指数平滑预测,对未来跨境资金流向的变动趋势进行了预测,发现江苏跨境资金流入流出总量增加并将继续保持顺差态势,且短期资本流出风险增大。在预测的基础上,运用状态空间模型对跨境资金流动与经济增长的关系作进一步分析,结果表明跨境资金顺差有助于经济增速的提高,且低水平的跨境资金顺差对经济增长的促进作用更强,因此在经济不景气时期应保持低水平的顺差规模以促进经济快速复苏。
Based on the historical data of cross-border capital surpluses in Jiangsu Province since 2007, this paper forecasts seasonally adjusted and exponential smoothing, predicts the trend of future cross-border capital flows and finds that the total inflow and outflow of cross-border capital flows in Jiangsu Province will continue to increase Favorable posture, and the risk of short-term capital outflow increased. Based on the forecast, the paper further analyzes the relationship between cross-border capital flow and economic growth by using the state-space model. The results show that cross-border capital surplus helps to increase economic growth and low-level cross-border capital surplus to economic growth . Therefore, we should maintain a low level of surplus in the economic downturn so as to promote rapid economic recovery.