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预测学(方法)属于技术情报学范畴。在目前国际市场剧烈竞争的情况下,除对市场需求进行调研以外,了解国际科技动态、发展趋势也是十分重要的。在这方面预测学将发挥它应有的作用。预测学涉及到社会学、心理学及数理统计学等学科,国外对此给予重视,进行了专门研究。苔尔菲方法是一种较为闻名的科学预测方法。本文结合本次预测实例简要而系统地介绍了苔尔菲预测进行程序及其基本原理。本文最后还揭示了本次CAD /CAM国际预测结果的几个主要方面:(1)CAD及计算机绘图;(2)CAM及计算机辅助工艺过程设计(CAPP);(3)成组技术(GT)、零件编码及分类系统;(4)物料传送。
Predictive science (methodology) belongs to the category of technical information science. Under the current situation of fierce competition in the international market, in addition to conducting research on market demands, it is also very important to understand the international scientific and technological trends and development trends. Predictive science in this area will play its due role. Predictive science involves disciplines such as sociology, psychology, and mathematical statistics. Foreign countries attach importance to this issue and conduct special studies. The Tilfi method is a well-known scientific prediction method. This paper briefly and systematically introduces Tilfi’s forecasting procedure and its basic principles in combination with this forecasting example. Finally, the paper reveals several major aspects of this CAD/CAM international forecast: (1) CAD and computer graphics; (2) CAM and computer-aided process design (CAPP); (3) Group technology (GT) , part coding and classification system; (4) material transfer.