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利用2000～2010年的数据对环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)进行实证分析,在环境指标上使用了综合环境污染指数作为评价指标,对工业废气、工业废水、工业固体废弃物进行综合评价,并算出了中国各省(自治区、直辖市)“拐点”的到来时间,结果发现倒“U”型的EKC确实存在,并且很多省(自治区、直辖市)拐点的到来时间是在2020年之后。在考虑进“环境承载能力阈值”之后对EKC进行修正,提出可能在拐点到来前触及“环境承载能力阈值”而引发生态灾难的观点。应用效应分解的方法分析EKC出现的内在机理,并根据分析结果提出使EKC拐点提前到来同时使EKC变得扁平的政策建议。
Based on the data from 2000 to 2010, this paper empirically analyzes the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), and uses the comprehensive environmental pollution index as the evaluation index on environmental indicators to make a comprehensive evaluation on industrial waste gas, industrial wastewater and industrial solid waste, And calculated the arrival time of provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) “inflection point ” in China, and found that the “E” type of EKC did exist and that the arrival time of many inflection points in provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) was after 2020 . After considering the “threshold of environmental carrying capacity”, EKC is amended to put forward the view that ecological disaster may be caused by touching the “threshold of environmental carrying capacity” before the inflection point is reached. Applying the method of factorization to analyze the intrinsic mechanism of EKC, and based on the analysis results, we put forward the policy suggestion to bring EKC inflection point forward while flattening EKC.