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利用统计学方法提取了干旱灾害的主要影响因子,进行了天水干旱气候对蜜桃生产影响评估。分析得出:影响天水蜜桃正常生长的主要干旱灾害以早春蜜桃萌芽~芽开放期干旱、花期干旱和蜜桃上年10月中旬高温干旱灾害最为明显;各干旱时段灾害强度发生频率以3月上中旬桃树萌芽~芽开放期轻旱和花期轻旱最多,发生频率分别为23%和31%,对蜜桃产量的影响以开花期大气干旱影响最大,贡献率为40%。影响天水蜜桃生产的干旱灾害综合评估表明,除轻旱、重旱评估准确率略低为83%和80%外,无旱和有旱评估准确率达94%以上,中旱、特重旱评估准确率均达100%,灾害评估效果比较理想。
The main influencing factors of drought disaster were extracted by statistical method and the impact of Tianshui arid climate on peach production was evaluated. The results showed that the main drought disasters that affected the normal growth of Tianshui peach were early peach sprouting ~ bud opening drought, flowering drought and peach drought in mid October last year, the most obvious; the intensity of drought in each drought occurred frequency of 3 The peach sprouting ~ peach blossoming at the beginning of the month was the most in light drought period and florescence with the frequency of 23% and 31%, respectively. The impact on the peach yield was the greatest, with the contribution rate of 40%. The comprehensive assessment of drought disaster affecting peach production in Tianshui shows that the accuracy rate of non-drought and drought assessment is above 94%, except moderate drought and severe drought assessment accuracy is slightly lower than 83% and 80% The accuracy of assessment reaches 100%, and the disaster assessment results are satisfactory.