2008年国际金融危机以来,“缺需求”是全球各国政府始终面临的难题,这一特征至今仍没有改变。但是,货币政策宽松与汇率贬值的效果微乎其微。因而,未来各国政府必然将改变政策的重点。在货币政策宽松遇到瓶颈的背景下,政府将逐步转向财政政策的宽松。然而,财政宽松与货币宽松的不同之处在于,其提供的需求有明显的外溢效应。为了避免这一外溢效应,财政政策宽松必须辅以贸易保护。同时,过去几年超宽松的货币政策导致发达经济体的贫富差距扩大,这也是导致近几年各国政坛中民粹主义抬头最主要的原因。在这种背景下,我们认为重新梳理历史上的几次“贸易战”是必要的,可以对当下带来一些启示。 Since the international financial crisis in 2008, the “lack of demand” has always been a challenge for governments all over the world. This characteristic has not changed so far. However, the easing of monetary policy and the devaluation of the exchange rate have had little effect. Therefore, all governments in the future will inevitably change their policy priorities. In the context of a loose monetary policy bottleneck, the government will gradually shift to fiscal policy liberalization. However, the difference between fiscal easing and monetary easing lies in the obvious spillover effect of the demand it provides. In order to avoid this spillover effect, fiscal easing must be supplemented by trade protection. In the meantime, over the past few years, ultra-loose monetary policies have led to a widening gap between the rich and the poor in developed economies. This is also the most important reason leading to populism in various political circles in recent years. Against this background, we think it is necessary to re-sort out several “trade wars” in history and bring some enlightenment to the present.