本文在股利信号理论框架下,以我国上市公司为研究对象,对管理层过度自信对股利政策的影响进行实证分析。结果表明,管理层越过度自信的公司越倾向于发放股利。现金流量越大、成长机会越小、规模越大、负债率越低的公司越倾向于发放股利。但进一步的实证分析发现,管理层过度自信程度的高低对每股股利的大小没有显著影响。现金流量水平越高、规模越大的公司的股利支付水平越高。 Under the framework of dividend signal theory, this paper takes the listed company in our country as the research object, and makes an empirical analysis of the impact of management overconfidence on the dividend policy. The result shows that the more managerial overconfident firms are, the more likely they are to pay dividends. The bigger the cash flow, the smaller the growth chance, the larger the scale, the lower the debt ratio of the company the more inclined to pay dividends. However, further empirical analysis found that the level of overconfidence in management has no significant impact on the size of the dividend per share. The higher the cash flow level, the higher the dividend payout of a larger company.