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在气候变化和人类活动的共同作用下,近几十年来内陆湖泊水量失衡,生态环境处于恶化趋势。系统地揭示影响内陆湖泊水量平衡要素之间的复杂错综关系及其作用机理是目前亟待解决的科学问题之一。研究运用系统科学理论和模拟技术,利用1983—2013年的气象、水文和社会经济资料,建立我国最大的内陆淡水湖——博斯腾湖水量平衡的系统动力学模型,进行水量平衡分析、敏感度分析和情景分析。结果表明:(1)博斯腾湖水位的波动是气候变化和人类活动耦合作用的结果。其中,近十年来湖水位的下降主要是受人类社会经济活动影响的缘故,特别是孔雀河流域社会经济发展需水量猛增引起的;(2)湖水位最敏感的自然要素:入湖地表水量>蒸发量>出湖水量,湖水位最敏感的人文要素:灌溉定额>灌溉面积>工业产值>人口;(3)未来30a的情景分析暗示:为了维持博斯腾湖水位优化生态环境,实现其周围区域社会经济的可持续发展,通过严格控制农业灌溉面积,普及节水技术,调整产业结构,有效利用水资源,调整社会经济用水与生态用水比例。
Under the joint action of climate change and human activities, the amount of water inland lakes has been unbalanced in recent decades and the ecological environment is deteriorating. It is one of the scientific problems to be solved to systematically reveal the complex and intricate relationships and their mechanisms that affect the balance of inland lake water. Based on meteorological, hydrological and socio-economic data from 1983 to 2013, a systematic and dynamic model of the water balance of the Bosten Lake, the largest inland freshwater lake in China, was established using systematic scientific theories and simulation techniques. Water balance analysis and sensitivity analysis And scenario analysis. The results show that: (1) The fluctuation of the water level in the Bosten Lake is the result of the coupling between climate change and human activities. Among them, the decrease of lake water level in the past decade is mainly due to the impact of human socio-economic activities, especially the rapid growth of water demand in the socio-economic development of the Peacock River Basin. (2) The most sensitive natural elements of lake water level: (3) The scenario analysis of the next 30 years implies that in order to maintain the ecological environment of the Bosten Lake and to realize the social environment in its surrounding area Economic and sustainable development, through strict control of agricultural irrigation area, popularize water-saving technology, adjust industrial structure, make effective use of water resources, adjust the proportion of social economy water and ecological water use.