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财政政策影响产出主要体现在两方面:一是财政总量政策效应,即税收总量和财政支出总量对产出(GDP)的显著影响;二是财政结构政策效应,即税收和财政支出结构的不同对产出的影响也不同。本文主要分析财政总量政策中财政支出规模和税收规模对中国经济增长(总产出)的影响,采用1999-2009年年度数据,运用处理非平稳数据的时间序列分析方法——单位根检验、格兰杰因果检验、协整检验对其进行检验,建立动态分布滞后模型对中国财政总量政策与产出之间关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明:财政支出规模变化对产出(经济增长)具有显著影响,而税收规模的变化对产出没有显著影响,并且财政支出相对规模对产出之间存在长期均衡影响,财政政策具有明显的中长期影响效果。
The impact of fiscal policy output mainly in two aspects: First, the fiscal policy effect, that is, the total tax revenue and total expenditure on output (GDP) significant effect; Second, the effect of fiscal structure and policy, that is, tax and financial expenditures The structural differences also have different effects on output. This paper mainly analyzes the impact of the size of fiscal expenditure and tax scale on China’s economic growth (total output) in fiscal total fiscal policy. Using the annual data from 1999 to 2009, using the time series analysis of nonstationary data - unit root test, Granger causality test, cointegration test to test it, and establish a dynamic distribution lag model to empirical analysis of the relationship between China’s fiscal policy and output. The results show that: the change of fiscal expenditure has a significant effect on output (economic growth), while the change of tax scale has no significant effect on output, and there is a long-term equilibrium between the relative scale of output and the fiscal expenditure, and the fiscal policy has obvious The long-term effects of the effect.