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本文以极值理论的POT模型为基础,利用山东省1949年~2010年的粮食作物单产数据对山东省的粮食作物巨灾损失进行测算。结果表明:极值损失统计模型可以很好的拟合小麦、玉米损失的极值数据,能够有效克服传统统计方法在拟合巨灾风险方面的不足,为农业巨灾风险的评估提供稳健的方法;山东省目前的保险费率较低,与测算的风险水平不一致。本文认为山东省应尽快建立一个完善的巨灾风险准备金制度,为农业巨灾的防灾、救灾和抗灾等积累和筹集资金,以增强农户应对农业巨灾风险的综合实力,实现社会福利的最大化。
Based on the extreme value theory POT model, this paper estimates the catastrophe losses of food crops in Shandong Province by using the data of grain crop production in 1949 ~ 2010 in Shandong Province. The results show that the statistical model of extremum loss can well fit the extremum data of wheat and corn losses and can effectively overcome the shortcomings of traditional statistical methods in fitting catastrophe risk and provide a robust method for assessing the risk of agricultural catastrophe ; Shandong Province, the current premium rate is lower, and the level of risk estimates inconsistent. This paper argues that Shandong Province should establish a perfect catastrophe risk reserve system as soon as possible so as to accumulate and raise funds for agricultural catastrophe prevention, disaster relief and disaster relief so as to enhance the comprehensive strength of rural households in coping with the risk of agricultural catastrophe and realize the social welfare maximize.