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目的:为研究BP(Back Propagation)神经网络模型在疾病预测中的应用价值,并为埃博拉出血热的防治工作提供理论依据。方法:应用BP神经网络模型对2014年至今西非三国埃博拉出血热流行趋势进行预测。以西非三国2014年3月至12月埃博拉出血热疫情资料建立预测模型,预测2015年1月西非三国埃博拉出血热疫情水平。结果:外推预测平均误差率为0.05998,预测准确度为94.00%。结论:BP神经网络模型可用于西非三国此次埃博拉出血热疫情的预测。
Objective: To study the application value of BP (Back Propagation) neural network model in disease prediction and to provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and treatment of Ebola haemorrhagic fever. Methods: The BP neural network model was used to predict the epidemic trend of Ebola haemorrhagic fever in three West African countries from 2014 to the present. Based on the epidemic data of Ebola from March to December 2014 in West Africa, a prediction model was established to predict the epidemic level of Ebola haemorrhagic fever in three countries in West Africa in January 2015. Results: The average error rate of extrapolation prediction was 0.05998 and the prediction accuracy was 94.00%. Conclusion: BP neural network model can be used to predict the epidemic situation of the Ebola haemorrhagic fever in West Africa.