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针对新型航天产品的特点,提出了一种基于Dempster-Shafer证据理论(DST)的非参数可靠性评估方法。首先利用样本数据构建分布函数的概率上下限,然后将其转化为证据理论框架下的基本信度分配(BBA),最后在可转移信度模型(TBM)下将其转换为一种概率度量,可据此对产品的寿命特征进行评估。文中的数值例子,表明了本文提出的方法在新型航天产品的可靠性评估中是简洁有效的。
Aiming at the characteristics of new aerospace products, a nonparametric reliability assessment method based on Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence (DST) is proposed. Firstly, the sample data is used to construct the upper and lower bounds of probability of distribution function, which is then transformed into the basic belief distribution (BBA) under the framework of evidence theory. Finally, it is transformed into a probability measure under the transmissible reliability model (TBM) The life characteristics of the product can be evaluated accordingly. The numerical examples in this paper show that the proposed method is concise and effective in the reliability assessment of new aerospace products.