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为了建立零售鸡肉中沙门氏菌的生长预测模型,以在超市购买的新鲜鸡肉和肠炎沙门氏菌作为研究对象,选择4、10、16、25、30、37℃条件,对肠炎沙门氏菌在零售鸡肉中的生长情况进行研究,绘制生长曲线。对一级模型,用Curve Expert软件中的Gompertz、Richards、Logistic 3种模型和DMFit软件中的Baranyi模型进行拟合,以确定最适用模型。4种模型拟合后的Baranyi模型相关系数都在0.98以上。数据表明该模型拟合程度最好,最适合预测沙门氏菌在鸡肉中的生长动态。二级模型是将一级模型拟合的数据带入Ratkowsky方程。此方程描述的是温度对最大生长速率的影响。通过准确因子、偏差因子以及均方根误差,对模型的准确性进行检验。结果显示模型的准确因子为1.129 698,偏差因子为0.984 85,均方根误差为0.091 5,决定系数R2为0.982 5,说明建立的模型可靠性高。
In order to establish the growth prediction model of Salmonella in retail chicken, the fresh chicken and Salmonella enteritidis purchased in supermarkets were selected as research objects. The conditions of 4, 10, 16, 25, 30, and 37 ℃ were selected for the growth of Salmonella enteritidis in retail chicken Research, draw the growth curve. For the first-level model, the Gompertz, Richards, Logistic three models in Curve Expert software and the Baranyi model in DMFit software were used to determine the most suitable model. The correlation coefficients of the Baranyi model after fitting the four models are above 0.98. The data show that the model fits best and is best suited to predict the growth of Salmonella in chicken. The second-level model is the first-order model fitting data into the Ratkowsky equation. This equation describes the effect of temperature on the maximum growth rate. The accuracy of the model was tested by the accuracy factor, deviation factor, and root mean square error. The results showed that the accuracy of the model was 1.129 698, the deviation factor was 0.984 85, the root mean square error was 0.091 5, and the coefficient of determination R2 was 0.982 5, indicating that the model was highly reliable.