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The numbers don’t lie: Last season, Stephen Curry was one of the worst long-range shooters in the NBA.
数据不说谎:上赛季,斯蒂芬·库里是NBA远距离投篮最差的投手之一。
During the 2016-17 season, Curry shot an abysmal .067 in a specific category: shots taken from half court or beyond in the final seconds of the first, second or third quarter. Per Basketball Reference, Curry attempted nearly twice as many such "heaves" (15) as any other player. He made just one, a running 50-footer against the Clippers that just beat the halftime buzzer. It was also the second straight season in which he led the NBA in such attempts.
2016-17赛季,库里在一个特定区域投出了极为糟糕的6.7%命中率:第一节,第二节或第三节最后时刻半场或半场以外的投篮。根据Basketball Reference的数据,这种被称为“heave”的投篮,库里15次的出手数接近其他任何球员的两倍。但他只命中了其中一个,也就是对快船的比赛中场结束前50英尺的跑投。这也是他连续第二个赛季在heave的出手数上领衔全联盟。
What started as a pet peeve for this particular writer eventually morphed into a modest quest: To figure out why some players refuse to shoot the ball in the closing seconds of a quarter or half. To that question, the seemingly obvious answer—they’re protecting their shooting percentage, duh—proved to be the correct one. But it also led to more questions, like: Why do some players seem to love hoisting these types of shots? Is this something coaches talk about, or even consider? And how is it, at a time when analytics have made everyone infinitely smarter about what stats actually measure, that a player would turn down a risk-free opportunity to throw the ball toward the hoop?
我们最初认为的无法忍受的事实,最终变成了一个合理的诉求:我们想搞清楚,为什么有些球员会在节末或者中场结束前拒绝投篮。答案似乎很明显:他们想保护自己的投篮命中率——这就是正确答案。但这也会带来新的问题,比如说,为什么有球员愿意投这种球?教练会谈论,甚至考虑这种投篮吗?在一个数据分析让每个人都清楚哪些数据更重要的时代,为什么有球员愿意拒绝无风险的机会而把球扔向篮筐呢?
The answers, based on a sampling of players around the league, are at once crystal clear and(sort of) complicated. But at least part of it has to do with the fact that coaches are hardly thinking about it.
根据联盟中一些球员样本,这个答案既清晰,又复杂。但至少有一部分原因是,教练很少会考虑这个问题。

"I’ve never been coached on that," Washington point guard Tim Frazier said.
“我從来没得到过这方面的指教。”奇才控卫蒂姆·弗雷泽表示。
"Coaches don’t really say anything about it," Mavericks forward Doug McDermott said.
“教练不太说这个问题。”独行侠前锋道格·麦克德莫特说。
"Every staff I’ve ever been a part of, you go over all the different situations in the course of a season," Grizzlies assistant Bob Bender said."That’s one that’s probably never been a priority.” “我参加过的每一个教练组,会思考赛季里面临的各种问题。”灰熊助教鲍勃·本德尔说,“但超远距离投篮从来没被重点考虑过。”
A member on Indiana’s 1976 national championship team, former Duke assistant under Mike Krzyzewski and ex-head coach at Illinois State and Washington, Bender has worked as an assistant for five NBA teams over the past 16 years. He says that from the coaches’ perspective, the rarity of such possessions—just one per game in college, and three per game in the pros—and the slim chance of making any shot from beyond half court means such scenarios are hardly worth spending valuable prep time on.
本德尔是1976年夺得全美国冠军的印第安纳大学的一员,他在杜克的K教练手下做过助教,也在伊利诺伊州大和华盛顿大学做过主教练,过去16年,他在五支NBA球队做过助教。本德尔表示,站在教练角度,这种回合的罕见性——大学比赛里平均每场比赛只有一次,职业比赛场均三次——以及命中半场投篮极低的可能性,使得球队根本不值得专门花时间准备这种出手。
"You try to cover everything," Bender said with a laugh, "but you don’t cover everything.”
“你想面面俱到,但面面俱到是不可能的。”本德尔笑着说。
A coach might make an exception, Bender added, if a player passed up an obvious chance to get a shot off at a potential turning point in a game. Take the following scenario Bender laid out:"End of the third quarter, other team’s on a run, they miss, and you get the rebound—but you don’t shoot it. At that point it might be something you’d highlight after the game, to say, ’Next time, just put it up. That might be a little bit of momentum. You never know.’"
本德尔补充,教练也许会允许例外存在,也就是不允许球员放弃一个能够扭转比赛气势的机会。本德尔举了一个例子。“第三节最后,对手发起快攻,但是没有进球。你拿到了篮球,但没有出手投篮。这种情况下,你可能会在赛后着重强调这个问题,比如说,‘下次记得投篮,可能有扭转气势的机会,谁知道呢。’”
SO LET MOST OF THE LEAGUE’S BEST SHOOTERS AVOID THE HEAVE (STEPH CURRY NOTABLY EXCEPTED). LET CHARACTERS LIKE JOHNSON AND GIBSON SHOOT THEM CONSCIENCE-FREE, AND LET ALL-STARS LIKE DRUMMOND TAKE HIS CHANCES ON THE RARE MOMENTS HE HAS A REASON TO SHOOT FROM BEYOND 12 FEET.
就让联盟大多数优秀投手避免heave吧(库里显然是个例外)。让约翰逊和吉布森这样没有心理压力的球员去投吧,让德拉蒙德这样的全明星球员抓住这种绝少的机会,成就梦想吧。
It’s hardly an untested hypothesis. Two years ago in Memphis, the Grizzlies were facing an eight-point deficit going into the fourth quarter against Minnesota. At least, they were until Vince Carter helped force a driving Tyus Jones into a turnover, corralled the ball near his own baseline and looked to the game clock at the opposite end of the court. Judging that he had enough time, Carter dribbled once, gathered the ball and shot in stride.
這也不能说是未经检测的假设。两年前在孟菲斯,在与森林狼的比赛中,灰熊面临着以8分劣势进入第四节的可能。至少在文斯·卡特逼迫突破的泰厄斯·琼斯出现失误,在己方底线拿到球看向对面场地的计时器时,场上局势便是如此。卡特判断时间足够,于是他运了一下球,拿起球后一个大跨步,将球扔了出去。 一月舒畅地战胜国王后,湖人主教练卢克·沃顿出于好意“出卖了”凯尔·库兹马。他告诉记者,这名新秀想让别人知道,他因为违反进攻时限而发生的失误是出现在没有意义的最后几秒。当沃顿告诉库兹马他应当出手时,库兹马承认,他不想降低自己的命中率。
Ivan Johnson was a member of the Hawks when Bender was on Atlanta’s staff. Bender remembers how the bruising forward would regularly practice shots from three-quarter court."And he was so strong," Bender said, "it really wasn’t a ’heave.’ If he got a defensive rebound, and there were any ticks on the clock, he was going.”
本德爾在老鹰工作时,伊万·约翰逊是老鹰成员。本德尔记得他经常在距离篮筐3/4场地的地方练习投篮。“他太强壮了。”本德尔说,“对他来说那不算heave。如果他拿下后场篮板,如果时间快到了,他就会出手。”
McDermott said that as a rule, "big guys don’t care" about the impact of an occasional heave on their shooting stats and cited his former teammate Taj Gibson as a big who "dreamed of those situations.
麦克德莫特说,这是规则,“大个子不在乎”偶尔的heave对他们投篮数据的影响。他举出前队友泰·吉布森的例子,说他“梦想着投出那种球”。
In a 10-month span last year, Gibson got to display both extremes of his carefree approach to heaves. In March, just a week after being traded to Oklahoma City, Gibson intercepted an attempted full-court pass at the end of the half and fired a high, perfect lob back from the top of his own key that found nothing but net. Then came this past December, when Gibson (by then in Minnesota), grabbed a defensive rebound in the closing seconds of the half and heaved again, this time from practically under his own basket.
在去年10个月时间里,吉布森展示了不在乎heave的两极状态。去年3月,被交易到雷霆后仅一周,吉布森在半场结束前抢断了一个全场传球,在己方半场罚球线附近,他投出了一个完美弧线,球空心入网。到了去年12月,吉布森(那时已经在森林狼了)在半场快结束时拿下一个防守篮板,他又一次投出了heave,这次的出手位置几乎在己方篮下。
TV cameras memorably caught Gibson’s teammate, Jimmy Butler, asking "What the f--k was that?" Gibson could be seen smiling and laughing as he jogged to the locker room for halftime.
电视工作者捕捉到吉布森的队友吉米·巴特勒嘟囔“这XX到底的什么”的样子。半场跑回更衣室的路上,吉布森很明显在微笑。
So let most of the league’s best shooters avoid the heave (Steph Curry notably excepted). Let characters like Johnson and Gibson shoot them conscience-free, and let All-Stars like Drummond take his chances on the rare moments he has a reason to shoot from beyond 12 feet. "I just do it for fun," Drummond said. "It’s just believing in myself and putting it up.”
就让联盟大多数优秀投手避免heave吧(库里显然是个例外)。让约翰逊和吉布森这样没有心理压力的球员去投吧,让德拉蒙德这样的全明星球员抓住这种绝少的机会,成就梦想吧。“我为了开心才投的,”德拉蒙德说,“就是相信自己,然后出手。”
Drummond still remembers his first heave—not the specific opponent, but a game early in his high school career, the shot coming from about half court. "I was really young," he says. "It felt like the greatest moment of my life."
德拉蒙德还记得自己的第一个heave——具体对手不记得了,那发生在高中生涯初期,他在半场左右出手投篮。“我年纪真的很小。”他说,“那感觉是我人生中最自豪的时刻。”
