论文部分内容阅读
目的流脑是一种危害人类健康的急性传染病,其发病有一定的规律,但规律较为复杂,这方面的研究多集中在发病趋势预测。本文旨在通过灰色系统理论相关方法,对1952-2009年安徽省流脑发病资料进行分析,研究安徽省流脑发病趋势,为流脑及其相似病毒的预防提供方法上的依据。方法统计安徽省各年流脑发病率,定义并找出流脑易发年,根据流脑易发年序列,建立GM(1,1)模型,对安徽省流脑发病趋势进行短期灰色灾变预测。结果根据统计结果,安徽省1952-2009年中有10个流脑易发年,按照这10个易发年的序列进行GM(1,1)建模,计算结果为安徽省下一个流脑易发年为2016年。计算的平均相对精度为79.97%,模拟精度为95.63%,处于灰色灾变预测的合理预测范围之内。结论可以用GM(1,1)模型进行安徽省流脑发病的灰色灾变预测,结合计算结果和误差分析,安徽省2016年及其前后两年可能有流脑易发年,考虑到目前安徽省流脑发病基数较小,很难呈现大规模流脑发病,但流脑发病波动规律仍然存在,计算结果可以为安徽省流脑的预防提供一定的参考。
The purpose of meningitis is a kind of acute infectious disease that endangers human health. The pathogenesis of it is a certain law, but the law is more complicated. The researches in this area are mostly focused on the prediction of the incidence. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the incidence data of meningococcal disease in Anhui province from 1952 to 2009 and to find out the trend of meningococcal disease in Anhui Province by means of the gray system theory and to provide the basis for the prevention of meningitis and its similar viruses. Methods The prevalence of meningitis in each province in Anhui Province was calculated and the epidemic-prone years were defined. According to the sequence of meningitis-prone years, a GM (1,1) model was established to predict short-term gray catastrophe in the incidence of meningitis in Anhui Province . Results According to the statistical results, there were 10 meningitis-prone events in Anhui Province from 1952 to 2009, and GM (1,1) was modeled according to the sequence of 10 easy-onset years. The calculation result was that the next meningitis The year is 2016. The calculated average relative accuracy is 79.97% and the simulation accuracy is 95.63%, which is within the reasonable prediction range of gray catastrophe prediction. Conclusions The gray catastrophe prediction of meningococcal disease in Anhui Province can be predicted by using the GM (1,1) model. Based on the calculation results and error analysis, it is probable that there will be an epidemic of meningococci in Anhui Province in 2016 and its two years before and after. Taking into account the current Anhui Province The incidence of meningitis is small, it is difficult to show the incidence of large-scale meningitis, but the fluctuation of meningitis still exists. The results can provide some reference for the prevention of meningitis in Anhui Province.