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过去的二十多年间,全球化和区域化以不可替代之势改变了世界经济格局。全球和区域经济联系大大加强,全球经济周期呈现的协同与异化特征成为学者关注的热点。为了分析全球经济周期的动态演变,本文根据1971~2014年间98个国家的产出、消费和投资数据建立了一种多层因子模型,研究了全球性、区域性因素对于全球经济周期的影响。实证结论表明:(1)区域内贸易协定和货币联盟的扩大对经济全球化没有带来实质性的影响,全球经济周期的协同性明显;(2)全球化时代见证了区域经济周期的出现。
Over the past two decades, globalization and regionalization have irreversibly changed the world economic structure. The global and regional economic ties have greatly intensified. The synergy and alienation features of the global economic cycle have become the hot topics of scholars. In order to analyze the dynamic evolution of the global economic cycle, this paper builds a multi-layer factor model based on the output, consumption and investment data of 98 countries from 1971 to 2014 to study the impact of global and regional factors on the global economic cycle. The empirical results show that: (1) the expansion of intra-regional trade agreements and monetary union does not have a substantive impact on economic globalization, and the synergies of global economic cycles are obvious; (2) The emergence of regional economic cycles has been witnessed in the era of globalization.