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近年来,高耗能行业成为中国节能减排工作的重点。高耗能行业用电对全社会用电形势有着非常重要的影响。为预测内蒙古高耗能行业未来用电需求状况,利用索洛模型和协整理论建立了高耗能行业电力需求与行业产值及其占全社会总产值比重、电耗强度之间的长期均衡模型,在此基础上结合国家及内蒙古自治区节能减排相关政策,分情景对内蒙古高耗能行业电力需求进行了预测。结果表明,内蒙古高耗能行业用电需求在2013—2020年将以8.06%的年增速增长,2015年和2020年行业用电量将分别达到2 016~2 134亿k W·h和2 672~2 946亿k W·h。若实现高耗能行业的绿色可持续发展,内蒙古应加快淘汰落后产能并加大绿色技术的开发与应用。
In recent years, the high-energy-consuming industries have become the focus of China’s energy-saving and emission reduction work. High-energy-consuming industries have very important influence on the electricity consumption situation in the whole society. In order to predict the future demand for electricity in high energy-consuming industries in Inner Mongolia, a long-term equilibrium model of electricity demand and industry output in high-energy-consuming industries and their share of the total social output value and power consumption intensity is established by using Solow model and cointegration theory Based on this, combined with the relevant policies of the state and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region for energy conservation and emission reduction, the demand for electricity in the high-energy-consuming industries in Inner Mongolia was predicted on a case-by-case basis. The results show that the demand for high-energy-consuming industries in Inner Mongolia will grow at an annual rate of 8.06% in 2013-2020, and the electricity consumption in industries in 2015 and 2020 will reach 216-1483 billion kwh and 2 respectively 672 ~ 2946 billion k W · h. If green and sustainable development of high-energy-consuming industries is to be achieved, Inner Mongolia should speed up the elimination of backward production capacity and increase the development and application of green technologies.