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在对高速公路交通灾害进行调查分析的基础上,考虑影响交通灾害预警的主要因素。基于未确知测度理论建立各主要影响因素的未确知测度函数,利用熵确定各影响因素的指标权重,依照置信度识别准则进行预警等级判定,从而获得交通灾害预警结果。并将该预警模型应用于新疆高速公路交通灾害预警,研究结果表明,该方法能解决高速公路灾害评价中诸多因素不确定性问题,可以在实际工程中进行推广应用。
Based on the investigation and analysis of traffic disasters in expressways, the main factors affecting early warning of traffic disasters are considered. Based on the unascertained measure theory, the unascertained measure function of each main influencing factor is established. The index weight of each influencing factor is determined by using entropy, and the warning level is judged according to the confidence criteria, so as to obtain the warning result of traffic hazard. The warning model is applied to early warning of traffic hazard in expressway in Xinjiang. The results show that this method can solve the uncertainties of many factors in highway disaster evaluation and can be popularized and applied in practical engineering.